1H of February:
After unemployment comes in hotter than expected, and new jobs on the market comes in much hotter than expected, FED is going to do 0 BPS hike.
Initial market reaction will be bullish and we rally.
2H of February
FUD starts. More companies will announce lay offs. They will come in big waves, Amazon lay offs will be huge, 100k +
The west provides Leopard 2 tanks to UA.
Russia moves in heavier into UA marking 1 year anniversary. Oil prices are volatile.
1H of March
FED does 0 BPS. Unemployment up bad. Lay offs continue to gain speed.
China FUD begins, News breaks that China is in a very bad shape , “reopen” was a myth, China is on a brink of collapse due to massive amount of corporate debt.
2H of March
Emergency meeting is held by the FED.
Rates are cut by 150 bps.
Markets fall of the cliff. Recession plastered all over the news, America collapsing, blood on the street. Big Short movie views on ATH.
Bonds sky rocket, oil drops to 60$, gold tumbles.
April: you buy the dip in equities and commodities ETF.
Position :Tmf august 18, 20 calls
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