Investment Thesis
Alzheimer's disease is the HOLY GRAIL for big pharma (even bigger than COVID) as it's a hundred billion dollar market opportunity and continually growing with the aging population. However, billions of dollars in R&D over the past 30 years has resulted in no FDA approvals expect for Biogen who recently got FDA approval on bio-marker data only and who's drug doesn't even cure or reverse Alzheimer's -it only slows it down for 6 months and can causes brain bleeding.
$SAVA Cassava's lead drug in development for Alzheimer's disease is Simufilam, is a pill with no safety issues. The drug caught the market's attention when it met endpoints in a Phase 2b randomized, placebo controlled study back in 2021 which sent the stock to $146.00 (currently $35.00). The data shows that 63% of patients saw a cognitive improvements which is much better than their competitors.
Shorts have been attacking this stock but a squeeze could be coming up very soon with with a few upcoming catalyst in 2023 (Short Interest of float is currently 22%). The first one is the Open Label study for Phase 2b in January 2023. There have been many claims against the data but was disproven and cleared by multiple independent medicine journals in 2021. The Open Label study is currently being independently being confirmed by third party statisticians.
On January 23rd, 2023 a judge is also supposed to rule (throw out) a citizen's petition which caused $SAVA's stock to drop in 2021.
This data event could send $SAVA back over $100.00 as it not only has 100 patients which can be 90% replicated in phase 3 trails but with 200 patients the statistics show 98% results can be replicated.
After this study, the next huge catalyst is the CMS data in Fall 2023. They also have two phase 3 studies going on with 750 patients and 1,000 patients respectively
It's also important to note that as of today $LLY Eli Lilly's drug got a CLR (rejection) from FDA as they have less than 100 in their study.
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