Position disclosure: I have 98% of my money wrapped into index funds and 2% in GME and Intel because “what the heck!” I also have a good chunk of cash waiting for the “right opportunity” to come along, preferably outside of stocks. Inflation is killing it, I know. Cash offers lots of flexibility either way.
I see so many headwinds in front of us over the rest of 2022 that it is hard to me to see the bull case. Dollar cost averaging through the year seems to be the best play right now but I would like to remember why things will be getting much better after 2022! Yes money is flying around everywhere and profits are huge but I just don't see how that can be sustained. Inflation is the real issue and it doesn't go away “overnight.” All these price increases are here to stay because that is how retail works. The labor shortage, cost increases, supply shortages has to cut into earnings at some point doesn't it? All of the businesses pulling out of Russia will cut into their profits as well (one would think). It's just hard to see the bullish position but I am not saying there isn't one. I believe investing in US companies long term is 100% the safest position over anywhere else in the world but I have to be honest, I think the “common” US consumer could start running out of money by the end of 2022. That means less buyers in the stock market and more sellers regardless of the health of the companies. Or people leverage low interest rates to compound the problem (or low interest rates disappear).
I guess this is a rather bearish sentiment but it is just easier to see at the moment. Show me what I am forgetting!
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