First of all: I have no positions in TSLA. I like their financials and believe they can be long-term successful, but no matter how optimistically I valuate them the stock price is still a lot higher than what I'd be comfortable with for opening a position. Basically, as long as it's 3 digits I see no way to make this work from a value perspective, around 75 would be a good entry point if I'm somewhat optimistic, around 50 if I'm more conservative.
Now, for the fun of it, I decided to search for old-ish threads about TSLA. This so-called “bear market” started around beginning of 2022, so I want threads that are newer than that, after things already went down a bit.
There's a lot of them. But I'm grabbing out one from 10 months ago as an example: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/st09kt/tsla_bullish_price_is_287usd_dd/
It's by a guy who makes a case why he thinks TSLA is overvalued and he comes with a 287 USD target for it. At that time, TSLA was trading a bit above 300 or so. So his target isn't outrageously low compared to the price back then. It's also pre Ukraine war and energy crisis, but that didn't seem to be the major factor for TSLA, which traded at 380 in April.
OP in that thread put a lot of effort in this, and while I disagree about many assumptions, it was definitely not a hate post on TSLA, but an attempt on some DD and coming up with a fair price for a company he seems to like.
Boy, did that guy get a backlash. The top comment by u/32no lay out the case why this, actually insanely optimistic, valuation back then is ridiculous and the share price will never get that low, while others just went to ridiculing OP. The user I tagged here is still mostly defending TSLA, according to a look at his recent posts.
However, the stock price today is less than half than the target price OP came up with in the thread I linked. I would be really interested in hearing from people who bashed OP back then, what they think about their arguments in retrospect.
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