What would actually cause a greater than normal recession in 2023 like so many big banks are doomsing?

I'm assuming there won't be massive layoffs in 2023 but if there are why?

I'm assuming wage growth in 2022 means more GDP in 2023 then, why wouldn't it? Would savings rates increase instead? Or would people still spend that money?

I understand higher rates will deter housing and car purchases and essentially make them more expensive. Is that alone enough to reduce economic activity? Basically the banks will eat the wage growth with interest and that will result in a depressed GDP? Is that enough to cause a significant recession and if so what historically makes people think that? How much would those two sectors drive GDP down?