I opened a 30dec22 396 spy straddle last friday.
its currently definitely profitable atm. but i am conflicted on what to do. since im getting last minute cold feet. (im not risking alot. only have 1 position opened. so i cant do any, “Close some for profit and let some run and see”.)
im wondering if waiting either just before, or after the FOMC interest rate announcement is to greedy.
my original plan based on last CPI/FOMC data, is to
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Evaluate today after CPI data. if there is a significant jump on my Straddle price, close it for a profit and be done with it.
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if there is a small to decent jump in on my Straddle, hold until before/after Wednesday FOMC interest rates announcements.
i think what makes this even tricky is that its the first time CPI data and FOMC meeting was back to back.
but if CPI data is decent/good/great, im assuming that means theres a good chance for FOMC meeting to be slowing down on interest rate hike. so it would be decent to hold off until the FOMC meeting announcement.
i think the difference between this week and last meeting is that last meeting, we knew the FED would still go with a 75bp hike. whereas this week, theres a very good chance for a 50bp. and if CPI data is good, it even more solidifies a 50bp hike and slowing down on interest rate hikes.
what are everyones thoughts?
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