In history since 1940, SP500 in bear market ALWAYS bottoms on some of this data(neither didn't even happen yet).
1.Market always bottoms in mid or recession(1/3-2/3 into recession) – didn't happen yet
2.Market always bottoms when unemployment peak/near peak – didn't happen yet, unemploymet still 40year low
3.10 year 3 month treasury is inverted and lowest in history,which is a most accurate indicator of recession in next 6-12 months. In last 25 years it was inverted 2 times, 2000dotcom and 2008 financial crisis.
4.Market usually bottoms/crash after pivot.Pivot is probably gonna happen sometime around 2023.I assume we're gonna have 50bps in Dec, 25bps in January/Feb and then they gonna pause for few months. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ymkxs7/fed_pivot_can_actually_crash_market/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb
5.Even if they stop increasing interest rates, we are still gonna have 4.75-5% rate for at least half of 2023.
Your opinion?
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