One key economic metric that I watch for recession indication are the State Coincident Indexes put out by the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia (link below). They have deteriorated significantly over the last 4-6 months.
I have historically watched how these indexes have performed relative to past performance heading into recessions. Currently the values are in line with the economy being within 6 months of a recession based on past performance.
The imugr link below shows # of states with negative growth versus positive growth on one axis and number of states with significant growth (excludes states with low growth) versus negative growth on the other axis. Dots in red are past months that fell within 6 months of a recession. The green line with dots are the last 6 month trend. The latest “October” results are marked in text.
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/state-coincident-indexes
Leave a Reply