It is important to remember that the stock market and the economy are two different entities.


As unemployment may rise, and other worsening economic data may come out over the next 6-12 months, it is important to understand that the market is not the economy.

To help illustrate, in the GFC, the market bottomed in March of 2009 while unemployment peaked in October of 2009. The reason? Government stimulus and the fed lowering rates which increased asset multiples, thus increased stock prices.

So if you see bad economic news, it may be a good thing for the market since it is a signal that interest rates will be lowered, thus increasing asset prices, as well as possible stimulus. BUT! I caution anticipating that support this time around since inflation is still ~7%. So it will be interesting to see if the fed/government intervene as quickly as they did in 2020/2008. As Carl Icahn recently noted, don't fight the fed. And unfortunately, the fed doesn't seem to be done yet with curbing demand to meet supply.


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