Recession canceled? U.S. GDP accelerated at 2.6% pace in Q3, better than expected as growth turns positive

We have reached the bottom!?

• Gross domestic product rose 2.6% in the third quarter versus the estimate of 2.3%.

• A narrowing trade deficit and increases in consumer spending and government outlays boosted the number.

• A sharp pullback in housing subtracted from the number, part of a broader decline in private investment.

• Consumer spending decelerated, increasing at just a 1.4% pace in the quarter, down from 2% in Q2.

The U.S. economy posted its first period of positive growth for 2022 in the third quarter, at least temporarily easing recession fears, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.

GDP, a sum of all the goods and services produced from July through September, increased at a 2.6% annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate. That was above against the Dow Jones forecast for 2.3%.

That reading follows consecutive negative quarters to start the year, meeting a commonly accepted definition of recession, though the National Bureau of Economic Research is generally considered the arbiter of downturns and expansions.

The growth came in large part due to a narrowing trade deficit, which economists expected and consider to be a one-off occurrence that won’t be repeated in future quarters.

GDP gains also came from increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. The report reflected an ongoing shift to services spending over goods, with spending on the former increasing 2.8% while goods spending dropped 1.2%.

Declines in residential fixed investment and private inventories offset the gains, the BEA said.

The chain-weighted price index, a cost-of-living measure that adjusts for consumer behavior, rose 4.1% for the quarter, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a 5.3% gain, due in large part to falling energy prices. Also, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, increased 4.2%, down sharply from 7.3% in the prior quarter. Core prices, excluding food and energy, increased 4.5%, about in line with Wall Street expectations.

Earlier this year, the Fed began a campaign of interest rate hikes aimed at taming inflation. Since March, the central bank has raised its benchmark borrowing rate by 3 percentage points, taking it to its highest level since just before the worst of the financial crisis.