My greatest single stock returns have come from buying commodity stocks at cycle lows, preferably when the commodity in question is trading below the marginal cost of most production. Buying uranium stocks in spring and summer 2020 is an example of this trade.
I would like to start a discussion about the various commodity markets and where the best cycle bottom opportunities currently reside.
To my eye:
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Tin: trading at just under $19,000/T (down from 50K) and trending toward $15,000/t, which is about the low over the last decade +. The tin market is incredibly thin and mined mostly by artisanal producers in Indonesia and Malaysia. The play is $AFM, which is a Congo producer operating arguably the greatest tin resource on earth
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Steel: HRC trading for $700 and rebar at $3650. HRC 10 year cycle low around $500 and rebar cycle low around $3500. X is an obvious play. ASTL is almost impossibly cheap to my eye.
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