My Full Plan for this Week (5 Earnings Plays, 2 Economic Events, 4 Stocks)

Hello ladies and gentlemen

I'm ash and write detailed DD on stocks and events, and my analysis usually does fairly well (check my post history for proof)

I'm starting a thing where I post weekly my analysis and plays for the upcoming week, I will be going through my plays for:

1. Earnings
2. Major Economic Events
3. My Watchlist

There is also a video on my channel (link in my profile) going through all this, so you can check that out if you dont like reading

Ok so let's get this show on the road

Earnings this week that I will play

But before we go into the earnings, here is how I play earnings most of the time

How i play earnings:

• buy shares whenever possible to avoid iv crush if you have a big account or the shares are cheap or buy atm options ideally 1-2 weeks before earnings to get a cheaper premium before iv spikes
• lotto size plays, no matter how much dd you do, things don't necessarily go as expected. you can be right and still lose money. i personally don’t go over 5% size on any earning’s play
• the name of the game is guidance, a company can beat eps and revenue and still tank if guidance is bad

So now that this is out of the way, let's dig into it

Tuesday 6 Sep 22

After Close – Github Labs – $GTLB

• DevOps software company
• Estimate Earnings Time: 4:05 pm EST
• Estimates: EPS ($0.23) & Revenue $94m
• Unusual Options: trade of 2500 $75c 12/10 in August nothing notable recently
• Options pricing in a 16% move on earnings
• $JPM downgrade knocked it down 18%, could be dropped to grab shares before a great earnings call, or could be something else.
• 6 months+ after lock-up expiration, insiders of $GTLB only sold 288.5k shares (~0.2% of total outstanding shares)
• My play: 09sep 49c it has massive potential to run if they beat, going with calls flow looks pretty bullish

Wednesday 7 Sep 22

Before Open – NIO inc – $NIO:

• EV car manufacturer
• Estimate Earnings Time: 6:00 am EST
• Estimate eps ($0.17) & revenue $1.45b
• Unusual Options: trade of 9000 19c 09/09 expiry, on Friday.
• Options pricing in a 10% move on earnings
• On the latest delivery report, $NIO delivered 10,677 vehicles in August 2022, an increase of 81.6% YoY
• They won't be affected by the chip ban, and are no longer in danger of delisting
• My Play: $18c 9 Sep, following the options flow on this one, I think guidance will be good on this one

After Close – Gamestop – $GME

• Estimate Earnings Time: 4:05 pm EST
• Estimates: EPS ($0.41) & Revenue $1.27B
• Unusual Options: trade of 7600 $20p 09/16 expiry in aug but nothing recent yet.
• Options pricing in a 15.0% move on earnings
• NFT marketplace not making money, no major games or studio deals last quarter, consoles sales slightly declining and Ryan Cohen screwed folks on $BBBY
• My Play: $24p 09sep, don't see how this one doesn't miss

Thursday 8 Sep 22

After Close – Docusign – $DOCU

• Estimate Earnings Time: 4:05 pm EST
• Estimates: EPS $0.42 & Revenue $602m
• Unusual option: trade of $65p 16/12 worth $3,792,570 on Friday
• Options pricing in a 19.8% move on earnings
• Charts and options chains are screaming bearish on this one massive put block getting bought last week
• My Play: $53p 09 Sep, gonna go with the flow here

Friday 9 Sep 22

Before Open – Kroger – $KR

• Estimate Earnings Time: 4:05 pm EST
• Estimates: EPS $0.42 & Revenue $602m
• Unusual Option: trade of $48p 09/09 worth $577,500 on Friday
• Options pricing in a 7% move on earnings
• My Play: $49c 09sep, $WMT, and $HD beat, I'm going against the flow here and going for calls following them

So this wraps up the earnings for this week, I should have bought last week to avoid high premiums from iv spikes, so I'm going to place all my calls and puts on Tuesday at the open, remember lotto size only

Major Economic events this week

So overall expectations are a relief rally this week all the way to JPow speech at somewhere between $4017 which is major resistance and 50MA on the daily and$ 4120 level which is another major resistance and 21MA on $SPX and then the start of a major meltdown after that. so we have

Tuesday

10:00 am – Non-manufacturing PMI aug

Wednesday
8:30 am – Balance of trade July

12:35 – Fed Brainard's speech

Thursday
8:30 am – Initial jobless claims
9:10 – 9:50 am – Fed Jerome Powell's speech

Friday

10:00 am – Wholesale Inventories

12:30 – Fed Walker Speech

As far as the short-term market reaction is concerned, which is what we are interested in now, most of these are all nonevents, with the exception of JPow speech and PMI read. they are all critical for the overall picture but the idea is to play these events.

Market reaction to numbers has been mixed. market dumps on good numbers and pumps on bad ones. i believe that the market basically uses these events to run or dump based on what the charts give us. going with that theory, my plays will be as follows:
I'm expecting a continuation of the Friday dump premarket so I will take SPX puts when pm opens, target is 3860 or before PMI whichever comes first.
Before PMI I expect a relief rally all the way into the JPow speech on Thursday, i'm not sure whether the market collapse starts at the JPow speech or CPI numbers on the 13th. My targets for SPX calls are $4017 and $4120. so I will be getting out of calls at these targets or before JPow speech whichever comes first.
My expectations are based on the chart levels below, the market pumped on shit numbers and dumped on great numbers, the only thing that has been consistent is the chart, they just tack on an excuse for why the stock moved the way they wanted it to.

Watchlist for this week

• $ETH has been channeling between $1700 and $1420 for the past week, I will looking for a break of the channel either way for the position, till that happens we can scalp within the range.
• $MSFT wins a $22B AR headset contract with the US army, I expect some more pain in the market followed by a proper relief rally, $MSFT should run hard on this news during the rally. I will take calls then, my target would be the retest of the 50MA at $270.4, if the market tanks I'm looking at $245 support as my first target
• $AAPL event starts on Wednesday, expected to reveal iPhone 14 among other things, could see a run, if the market runs. we are currently right at the 50MA on the daily and $155.6 support. if the market runs target is $166.5 which is the 21MA, and if it tanks we will see $130 quickly
• $SAVA 3M in insider buys last month by directors and the chief medical officer, if someone knows something about whether they pass the trials or not, it would be this guy. more importantly, insiders sell for many reasons but buy only for one, they think the stock will go up. low float 37M and 33% of float shorted, ran to $140 last year.

Taking ATM calls here for Jan20 23 might wait for a drop to $15.4 support before an entry, but we are at 50MA on the daily, so might take a starter there. if phase 2 final data is positive, we can expect to hit $65 resistance at least, phase 3 data may be available in early 2023. I'm taking my time with entries here and may go for a longer expiry.

If you have any questions let me know, non of this financial advice, check my YouTube channel, Twitter, and discord, they are free I don't sell anything at all, and I'm getting very active across the board, all links are in my profile.

I wish you all a very green week!