So all your life you’ve been told to invest long term and keep throwing money at VOO in your 401k in hopes that you’ll have enough when you’re 65 to retire.
If you’re like me and in your early 20s, this is terrible advice. Our parents and grandparents had the ability to invest in the quickest growth in human history. Think about that. Just because the last 50 years have been insane growth doesn’t mean the future will be. The economy will either be stagnant or lower in the future.
If you follow Elon Musk, I’m sure you’ve seen his take on underpopulation
You may be thinking “HE JUST WANTS MORE WORKERS! HE IS A RICH BILLIONAIRE DONT LISTEN TO ELON”
Why wouldn’t you listen to Elon, or at least be curious to see if he’s right? Well let’s take a look.
Long term, the fertility rate has been steadily going down. So has the marriage rate.
Now let’s take a look at population by generation. Almost 90 million old people.
The last statistic I want to bring up is that 30% of men ages 18-30 are not having sex. Source
This means less and less younger people are getting married and having kids. Young men 18-30 who are not having sex won’t suddenly get married and start having kids. This will translate into a worse economy in the next 20-40 years. When the millennials and gen Z are older, we will literally not have enough young workers to keep the economy going. My prediction is the next great crash in the mid 21st century will be due to an underpopulated society.
These are all indicators of a slowing society. It’s not good for your long term portfolio. A healthy society would be raising children and keeping the family unit alive.
The only counter argument people have is that immigration will solve this. Sadly you couldn’t be further from the truth. We get maybe 1 million people a year immigrating to the USA.
Less people means less innovation, less growth, and a slower economy. It’s going to be a rapid decline. I don’t want to say 2021 will be the peak of the market forever, but we’ll see.
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