I want everyone to be successful and make money. All over r/stocks and other similar subs I am seeing people crying about the recent BBBY stock fiasco. Make this a reality check that if it seems too good to be true it probably is. Reminds me of when I was a gambling addict and thought I could beat the casino years ago.
I will say what others have pointed out on this sub in the past. If you had held each of the following ETFs or stocks you would in every single situation find your money, 10 years ago to today, at least double. What I will also do is show how much money you will have in 10 years from now, assuming the same performance in the US stock market. I believe we are headed for a recession in 2023, but I also believe we will see an overall similar mid term performance between now and 2032 with the below ETFs and stocks (yes, even with Tesla). I will provide what percentage of the portfolio each ETF or stock should be, along with the past 10 year and if repeated what the next 10 year return will be (not even including dividends) if you had invested only $1,000 in 2012 AND also what your return would be if you invested only $1,000 today and wait until 2032:
VOO [40% of portfolio] … 2012 ($129 per share) to 2022 ($393) return = 204% return
> 2022 ($393) to 2032 with a 204% return would equate to VOO being at $1,195
>> $1,000 invested in 2022 with a 204% return would equate to $3,040 (not including dividends)
TQQQ [20% of portfolio] … 2012 ($1.17 per share) to 2022 ($37.55) return = 3,109% return
> 2022 ($37.55) to 2032 with a 3,109% return would equate to TQQQ being at $1,205
>> $1,000 invested in 2022 with a 3,109% return would equate to $32,090 (no dividend is paid on TQQQ)
Alphabet Class C [20% of portfolio] … 2012 ($16.93 per share) to 2022 ($120.17) return = 609% return
> 2022 ($120.17) to 2032 with a 609% return would equate to Alphabet Class C being at $853
>> $1,000 invested in 2022 with a 609% return would equate to $7,098 (not including dividends)
Apple [10% of portfolio] … 2012 ($23.69 per share) to 2022 ($174.15) return = 635% return
> 2022 ($174.15) to 2032 with a 635% return would equate to Apple being at $1,281
>> $1,000 invested in 2022 with a 635% return would equate to $7,355 (not including dividends)
The remainder of my portfolio is made up of Tesla, Microsoft, Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) and I always keep about 5% of my portfolio in cash to buy during corrections quickly. Each of these has at least a 200% return on investment (SCHD is closer to 196% but remember this is a high dividend ETF).
This is a reality check and a reminder for us, including myself, that the best thing a person can do is put money in things like VOO, TQQQ, and other profitable mega/large cap stocks with good track records and not check them every single day or try to beat the market. The articles about dead people who were not selling in panic during the start of the pandemic make sense now. Your $1,000 put into the first 4 companies listed above ($4,000) would be $49,583. Even if we go into a recession, which could mean TQQQ goes down to $1 you are still going to come out on top in 10 years. Set it and forget it.
Leave a Reply