I think too many people are too confident in this current rally

I keep seeing people showing concern this is a bull trap and then everyone tells them that this mentality is going to get them in a state of regret. The thing is, a major recession is always accompanied by some of the largest bull rallies on the way down and accompanied by characteristics that people never think that it’s going to go down again.

What seems obvious to me is if you look at the market, over the pandemic it skyrocketed in the fastest and largest bull market in history, but meanwhile there were global lockdowns and businesses shutting down left and right, the government went into accelerated debt and all this growth was literally free money being pumped into the markets from the Fed. Where do people get the idea that a major correction isn’t due/over? Where is the abundance of production and profits that would justify the market still being this high? (Especially if prices and evaluations are quantified next to inflation, the real inflation is also much higher than the manipulated 8.5%)

While the job market is doing relatively well, there are still reports of large layoffs happening and showing no sign of slowing. We have had literally One single good report but anyone that read the report saw that food, shelter and energy were still up, and food shortage issues are expected to get worse toward the end of the year.

But the biggest hint of all is that the Fed still has made no signs of a pivot and I think a lot of people are confusing inflation being past it’s peak with the actual issue being resolved. Supply chains are barely recovered, inflation around the world is way worse than America and if their economies hit hyper inflation their contributions to supply chains will only get worse.

I’m just going to say it: there is no full resolutions to justify the markets at these prices. There are too many signs showing this is an emotional (greed) bull rally trap. None of the underlying problems have been solved, monetary policy will not change until at least 4-5% inflation, and instead of the Russian situation getting better- intel shows when winter comes it will only get worse and China/Taiwan is now a potential new threat. Maybe this rally will last another month or so, but new all time highs are probably not until after another downturn. Thoughts?