Let me start by saying I am in no way a finance major. I only do a bit of research in my spare time and am fairly new to this world.
The other day I stumbled on philips curve which implies that inflation and unemployment have an inverse relationship. Right now we have high inflation and low unemployment.
Now the feds could only talk about how we are not in a recession right now even though we have had two negative gdp quarters in a row because of the low unemployment. At the same time they want to combat the high inflation.
From what I’ve found, the rate hike effects won’t fully be felt for a year. Is the low unemployment rate we have now a lagging indicator from our 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP and the rate hikes? Will unemployment rates rise only after the economic effects of high inflation and rate hikes are fully realized?
Not looking for a real answer as much as just want to pick other peoples brains as a discussion. None of my real life friends are into this stuff.
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