I've noticed a trend where people will say Apple will beat on earnings because their ecosystem is such and such or their stores are packed, etc. Or maybe they've noticed a change in their Facebook feed so they think Facebook will miss earnings.
Earnings expectations are formed by analysts who closely follow the company and its operations. And earnings misses or beats are frequently barely off of expectations. It's really, really doubtful that your casual observations or basic facts about the product can lead you to know the company is going to do 3% better than the pros think it will.
The company is doing well… or Nobody wants their stuff anymore… are very likely already reflected in the expectations. Companies that are doing badly often beat expectations, and companies that are doing well often miss expecations.
tl;dr: Earnings beats and misses are a matter of over or underperforming the expectations of professionals who follow the company, often by small amounts. Your casual observations are probably not useful.
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