It's not hard to scroll past many comments over the months on the subreddit from a ton of different people that list out a ton of different reasons as to why the market SHOULD (based on XYZ logic and XYZ reasoning) fall further (in their opinion).
Lots of people don't see enough value in SPX 3800 to deploy their sideline cash and are waiting for lower levels. They didn't see value in SPX 4700, 4400, 4200, etc. either I'm guessing. Some people call “perma-bull dip buyers” stupid. Some people claim to be short since SPX 4700. Some people gamble on puts. Some people trade at basically 50x margin with /ES futures.
People who are obsessed with seeing this bear market play out to the tune of 3600, 3400, 3200, 3000 and refuse to deploy their cash into equities until then… you sound like the majority sometimes but… are you actually the minority? Why is the market glued to 3800 like a magnet? If everybody held your same belief, wouldn't nobody be buying right now? Wouldn't 401k contributions come to a halt? Wouldn't ETF outflows be greater than inflows?
We hit 3719 on 2022-07-14 and have basically bounced 4-5% off of it since then
We hit 3666 on 2022-06-16 and have basically bounced 6%+ off of it since then
If we can assume that the price of SPX is going up because there's buyer side demand driving the price up over and over again… at what point will the “it needs to go below 3600 for ________ reasons” admit to themselves they aren't special, they don't have any knowledge/information that isn't publicly generally available, and their stubbornness is costing them money at this point?
Everybody wants to look smart and cool and be able to say “I told you say, wait for capitulation!” but in the mean time… the market is showing extreme reluctance to anything below 3800 for any extended period of time
I personally don't care. I don't have any kind of short position and I am dollar cost averaging like the rest of the boring investors. It just seems funny to me that people with a $5k investment portfolio or a $20k net worth think they are going to beat Wall Street with patience.
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