I'm interested in clarifying and discussing these points on CPI.
A. FED prefers PCE data as metric for inflation not CPI.
The CPI measures the change in the out-of-pocket expenditures of all urban households and the PCE index measures the change in goods and services consumed by all households, and nonprofit institutions serving households.
I guess this is significant because CPI measures prices which might not be because of inflation. AKA sanctions on Russia, oil price fixing. EVs and used car prices….these things cost more for reasons other than oversupply of money. Remove the sanctions, increase the cartels oil production, un-eliminate ICE vehicles so people aren't scrambling to get them to use for parts later. Because the reality is people actually don't have money to spend which is the opposite of inflation but the CPI says otherwise because of the above.
B. FED uses headline inflation which includes energy and food. That is what Powell said during the last FOMC press meeting.
Significant because these are the things people have to pay for if they have money or not. Also as stated above, the reading is not necessarily due to inflation. Beating a dead horse when I say, I can tell you my service will cost you 2X more now just because I can afford to. So since my price is higher and is used to measure how much money you have, it doesn't mean you have more money. You can't afford it but my buddy will pay it so I make the same amount. Spoiler, my buddy gets his money to pay the increased costs from you in taxes or loans.
C. The CPI data is a month behind.
You can track commodity, energy, used car prices and everything else on the stock market or whatever live. You can calculate it ahead of time. It shouldn't be a surprise. But it was. In hindsight you can find reports that were correct. These reports actually tracked the prices and calculated the CPI. The overall estimates were based on guesses and not actual data calculations. WTF is an “estimate” these days because we need a way to distinguish a calculation based on data vs someone's asshole.
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