I'm trying to anticipate the CPI Numbers.
It has 3 major components : gas, electricity, and food prices.
Energy has started to roll over, but remember : this is a lagging indicator. The price of crude has gone down from the highs of 120 on 6/8, down to 100, it even peeked down under 100 this week. But in my opinion, it will be a while before consumers see this reflect on the price at the pump.
Electricity : I think people aren't talking enough about the price of electricity, and it has partly been overshadowed by the price of gasoline. With the worldwide adoption of EVs, it's only natural that the price of electricity goes up in the next 10 years. Couple that with the fact that in EU, they made the painful, and definitive choice of switching away from Liquid Natural Gas. That means more consumption of electricity for heating.
Food : the overall Food price index has gone down from end of may to end of June, from 159 to 151, but it's nothing to write home about.
Price of poultry has gone up, beef has fallen a bit, and pork has pleateau'ed
Price of cereals have gone up over the month of June.
Rent : rent price of 1 and 2 bedrooms has continued growing year over year, and month over month, according to the Apartment list national rent report, but we are starting to see a slowdown in rent growth.
So overall, I have a feeling that inflation isn't going down any time soon. And this stagnation is gonna show in the CPI of June. Do you agree with this ? Is it what you see in your day to day life ?
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