I see a lot of people make valuation arguments without discussing earnings and growth expectations. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models are famously used for valuation which is based on earnings and growth expectations. While there are several other models that are used, most if not all are also based on earnings and growth expectations. Therefore, you cannot make a legitimate argument without discussing these two factors. This isn't something I made up, it's based on the foundations of finance and historical findings of much smarter minds than me on stock valuation.
The most popular example we all see on the internet these days is “Tesla is overvalued”. I'm not here to debate whether or not it is, but let's pause and actually investigate why Tesla is so highly valued as opposed to just calling it “hype”. Many arguments compare them to competitors along the lines of “other automakers such as Ford and GM produce way more cars than Tesla” or “the competition is coming with EVs”, etc. While all these points are true, these arguments are still incomplete as they are not accounting for earnings and growth expectations. These arguments would make more sense if they were attributed to those two factors.
Let's investigate the revenues and profits of 2 of the most popular US automakers, GM and Ford, along with Tesla. (Note that I have used operating income as opposed to net income to exclude the noise from Ford's Rivian position)
Ford: https://imgur.com/TI6xgpb
Tesla: https://imgur.com/XCPJzYC
Earnings ($) by year from 2016 to 2021:
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 9.55B | 8.66B | 4.45B | 5.48B | 6.63B | 9.32B |
| Ford | 5.79B | 4.88B | 3.20B | 574M | -1.28B | 4.52B |
| Tesla | -0.68B | -1.63B | -0.39B | -0.07B | 1.99B | 6.52B |
Earnings Growth from 2020 to 2021:
| 2020 | 2021 | $ Growth | % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 6.63B | 9.32B | +2.69B | +41% |
| Ford | -1.28B | 4.52B | +4.96B | NA (+) |
| Tesla | 1.99B | 6.52B | +4.53B | +228% |
NA percent increases cannot be calculated from a negative number to positive. '+' to indicate positive growth
Earnings Growth from 2016 to 2021:
| 2016 | 2021 | $ Growth | % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 9.55B | 9.32B | -0.20B | -2% |
| Ford | 5.79B | 4.52B | -1.27B | -22% |
| Tesla | -667M | 6.52B | +7.19B | NA (+) |
NA percent increases cannot be calculated from a negative number to positive. '+' to indicate positive growth
We can clearly see that Tesla is growing exponentially while both Ford and GM have negative growth/stagnated from 2016 to 2021. In fact, Tesla already has higher earnings than Ford. Based on this historical information and management's projections of a 50% multi-year growth rate, it wouldn't be an unreasonable assumption to make that Tesla will overtake GM in earnings as well very soon. Institutional (and some retail) investors are discounting their own projected future cash flows for each of these companies to the current stock price. And for this reason of earnings and growth expectations, Tesla is valued higher than other automakers.
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