Let me know what you think of these potentially positive catalysts, I'm trying to see if the logic is sound. This is all based on a theory that we at or near bottom now, without taking a recession into account.
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Unpopular Ukraine proxy war ending in peace. Our lawmakers and NATO miscalculated this entire idea from every aspect and the war may end sooner than later. Ukrainians got everything we have to give and still lost. War ends, markets go up, inflation goes down, potentially before Nov election.
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Democrats scrambling to appear to do something to help economy before mid-terms. Either they do something substantial to try to help fix the economy instead of relying on the Fed. So either they do something and the market goes up or they fail and republicans get elected and the market goes up.
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Possibility of a recession prompts fed to end QT.
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China reopens. Excuse my tin foil hat here, but I can't help but see a correlation between war in Russia and China lockdown. But when they reopen, markets go up.
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Rising inflation, QT, rising interest rates, looming recession, crashing market, layoffs flip market paradign to “bad news is good news” like in 2008-2010. Bad news will be viewed as reason for Fed/Congress to act. Markets go up with bad news.
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Deals made with Venezuela or Iran or domestic producers to increase oil/gas supply, markets go up.
What do you think of these?
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