I thought it might be worth opening a discussion on the moves in yields today, especially following the large moves we saw late last week.
It's clear the market now believes the Fed will need to get far more aggressive than originally thought. Do you think this weeks Fed meeting will provide some relief for the bond market or do you think this upward trend is likely to continue?
Personally I could see the 10 year topping out at 4% over the next couple of months before falling back down to 2.5% – 3%. I believe the market is now overreacting to last week's inflation data, but I'll admit that I've consistently underestimated the persistency of the inflationary pressures we're seeing.
What are your thoughts?
Leave a Reply