① Goldman Sachs: An increase in labor force participation and a decline in labor demand may be necessary to restore labor market balance and bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target;
②Allianz: The inflation rate may further rise to 9%, the economy is currently in a period of stagflation, and the Fed is “lagging behind” on inflation, and it is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points this week;
③Barclays: The CPI report shows that the prices of all sub-items are very strong, and even accelerated. Energy prices change expectations, and the Fed has good reason to unexpectedly raise interest rates sharply in June;
④ Citibank: Continued strong inflation data may suggest that the Fed needs to raise interest rates more clearly by 50 basis points or more, until actual inflation slows down convincingly;
⑤ Capital Economics: The CPI report shows little sign that inflationary pressures are easing, and the Fed may extend the rate hike cycle until the fall, or even raise rates by 75 basis points at the June meeting;
⑥ Institutional surveys show that most economists believe that with price pressures rising to 40-year highs, there is still a long way to go from what Powell calls “clear” evidence of a decline in inflation.
On Friday, the Dow fell 880 points or 2.73%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 2.91% and 3.52%, respectively. The Dow lost 4.58% last week, while the benchmark and Nasdaq fell 5.05% and 5.6% respectively, their worst weekly performance since January this year.
This Thursday: 2:00 pm Fed FOMC announces interest rate decision, policy statement and economic expectations; 02:30 Fed Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference.
Let's see how it turns out. But I still want to remind everyone, please fasten your seat belts, the downhill of the roller coaster may come.
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