So I just turned 31, I have around $150k invested in broad market ETFs, and that represents about 3x my annual salary.
My portfolio is sitting at about break even currently, and I have about 25% cash to average in at lower prices.
That said, even though I don't need the money any time soon, every thing I see tells me this market is going lower.
A part of me wants to make a hero call and sell while I'm still in the green, then buy lower. That said, I know timing the market rarely works out.
I'm less scared of losing money than I am of the feeling that I bought at a bad time, and I'm convinced better prices are coming in the next 6-12 months.
I've been in the market for a while and I've seen the V shape recoveries, but every single time it was because the Fed came in to support. I don't think that will happen any time soon, so why not pull out and buy back in DCA style 10-30% lower? Or literally wait until the Fed uturns then go back in all at once?
Even if I only save 10-15% downside, that's some pretty good alpha and I'd be happy knowing I beat the market.
Thoughts?
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