Wondering everyones thoughts on the current market and more importantly why? Do we think this is a bear market rally? or have we hit the bottom and will trade sideways for a bit? I do no think we will hit all time highs within this year (although what do i know), but if you do would love to know why.
Some of the facts / upcoming factors:
-CPI: We know inflation is high, potentially (hopefully) peaked, but still decently high (if estimates for May are 8.2% its not really going down fast yet) with huge inventory numbers from walmart, target, etc it may suggest as cathie wood has said we see inflation go down big quick, potentially deflation. Although gas prices and utilities are still skyrocketing
-QT started / interest rates going up: less money in the world, less borrowing, potentially (probably) more slowdown
-Q2/Q3 earnings: even if we do not go into a recession (on paper or not), we are already starting to see from Q1 guidance that future earnings reports will not be great. Mix in recession fears, or a recession itself, future earnings will be tough to top for most stocks
-Potential rate hike pause or slowdown: Anthony Pomp is thinking inflation will go down big time, and we will be in a bad recession, the fed will pause, or maybe even decrease rates (2h of year), this would be good for market and economy cuz inflation would be going away and incentivize spending again.
At this point I am not sure what has been priced in or not (lol), and please comment if i missed any other big headwinds (I'm sure i have). Based on the above, even if the fed U-turned, i just cannot see stocks going to all time highs any time soon (this year). With so much uncertainty it seems like a bear market rally, but if it was that easy to guess, I wouldn't be typing on reddit, I'd be swimming in my private pool sippin pina colada's
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