I just had a realization about the stock market and how the fed chairmen might be thinking about where prices are. If you look at a chart of the S&P, you see that we've been oscillating around this trendline since the 2009 lows. When you adjust this pace upwards for inflation, it can in a way represent society getting more wealthy over time. Thanks to human ingenuity the average person is much more well-off than someone 100 years ago. It could be argued that the 11 years before the pandemic were fairly sustainable, people were consuming but also working/being productive and contributing their fair share to the pie. The pandemic created a massive crash, but thanks to fed stimulus, an unsustainable trajectory for the S&P 500, the stock market and society as a whole. Now the fed has removed this stimulus and the S&P 500 has dumped back to this long-term trendline starting in 2009.
The way I see it, the S&P 500 following the upward trajectory of this trendline would be a “soft landing”. Things go back to the way they were pre-pandemic, on average people are decently well-off, increasing modestly each year. So it's no surprise the fed “floated a trial balloon” on potential rate hike pauses. But the S&P aggressively rising off of this trendline would be a sign to the fed that our society still exists in an unsustainable condition, so inflation won't come down. Kind of an abstract and theoretical way to think about the price of the S&P 500. But as a general barometer of the stock market which itself is a gauge of societal wealth, it makes sense. So what I would like to see is for us to maintain a modest trend upwards along this trendline over the next months and years, which would be a good sign that society has returned to a period of sustainable growth.
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