I see a lot of snobbish posts that people around here are ignorant and don't even take the time to do their own DD, which appears to be defined as combing through quarterly filings, building their own NPV model, running background checks on the company's C-suite, and who knows what else.
Someone please ELI5 – how are retail investors, mostly folks with jobs and families, going to do enough research on a stock that it will give them a competitive edge vs institutional investors on where a stock is going?
Never mind, let me answer – you won't. Unless you've got inside information, you are not going to uncover insights that investors with unlimited resources already know. And on top of that, stock prices are highly influenced by the macro environment and movement of the stock market overall, and no one can predict what will happen there either.
What's that? You called a top in January and went to 100% cash? You're either lying or you're lucky. People have been calling for an overdue correction for 10 years. Lots of those people probably went to cash way too early.
I'm not saying stocks are a 100% crap shoot – you can increase your odds of success with simple rules (buy stocks that are profitable, have a competitive moat, a track record of growth, etc) but unless you are Warren Buffett, you don't need to spend hours drawing up DD analysis before buying a stock.
Pick a strategy and stick with it, and during downturns, if you're lucky enough to have cash, buy more. It's not rocket surgery or brain science.
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