Solomon sees a 30% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 24 months
In an interview with several U.S. media outlets Wednesday, Solomon said higher interest rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet would have an unpredictable impact on the economy or corporate business . “You have to consider the fact that at some point, a recession is a reasonable outcome or economic growth becomes very, very slow. If you're running a significant business, you have to look at the status quo more carefully now than you did a year ago.” He said.
A business survey released the same day showed that the confidence of U.S. business executives in the economic outlook has retreated due to rising raw material prices, persistent supply chain problems and the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy. While most respondents expect a recession, Goldman Sachs believes the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 to 24 months is about 30 percent. “Just because a recession is far from inevitable doesn't mean it's a sure thing.” Solomon said.
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