I need to get this out the way before I make my plea.
the current mantra of specualtors is – What should I invest in if interes rates are at zero?
aggresviely pay off any debt you may have, your return from this will certainlty be better off than what you will get from public markts, invest in your own education or your family members. Use the money to advance aspects of your career.
here goes
I am totally aghast at peoples holdings, the chances of you making a long term gain on companies like snowflake or tesla are zero. These are not casino stocks because there are few in a casino who might make money in the long run. Paying $600,000 dollars per telsa ever sold is insane. Paying 100 times sales for snowflake is suicide. The only way you would make money is if you held the onver 40 years and had happened to pick the next walmart or apple. american equity indexes will be flat over 10 years. growth stock will be lower than flat.
But somethign like ARK innovation which has bundled the most speculative companies will become the poster child for this climate. Almost all of the return of these etfs is just multiple expansion, thats it.
People pointing to these recent stock success of these companies is like using a plane as an example of why gravity does not exist.
Palantir for example is trading at similair PS multiples like Akamai in 2000 the stock is still 68% down. 99% of the stocks you know im talking about will do incredibly poorly.
there will be an amazon style winner in their somewhere.
you wont hold it for the length of time youll need to to make a return.
My guess is the extreme specualtion will carry on for a while yet, low interest rates and psychology will push this higher for now.
If you are holding these stocks you are the patsy and the poker game.
you may make extrmely large retunrs over the next few years.
I implore anyone with singficant amounts of their net worth in such speculative stocks or products to reconsider.
some part of us who do this for a living are looking forward to the inevitable reconing. dont give us the satisfaction.
If you do want to hold this stuff, jsut make it a small part of your portfolio.
the people selling you this stuff and charging a management fee are making an absolute killing on your total naviety.
Dont say you werent warned.
sorry for the spelling, im watching the simpsons!
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