Going into today we had a small gap of about 90 cents to fill left on the daily chart. While GAPs almost always fill an upside gap when we are in what appears to be a short term bear trend can be up for debate as there is no real timeframe for gaps to fill. It does appear SPY fills them two days later usually.
With that being said we saw the bears take hold again today running the VIX back up to 23.82 intraday and a low of 443.53 before saw a massive (what used to be rare but is now common) mid day reversal of trend. While these trends are getting pretty darn old they are becoming fairly common. Again the hint was the back to back massive red candles at 1pm. From there she just kept falling. That 24 level seems to be key “resistance” right now.
As you can see we are within a clear downward what I call a double channel. We are currently trading within and bouncing upward resistance of the upper channel.
Despite the big energy the bulls came with end of day we saw SPY stop dead in its tracks at 450.5 range and failed to break through that resistance for over an hour before it finally sold off right into candle with a nice fat red candle down to 448.77.
With the gap being filled and the upper limit holding strong I will be watching for a sell off into after hours and for futures to take a small dip over night. I suspect we could trade around the 446.5 to 44 range after hours.
Upper resistance for the channel (assuming we stay with in it overnight) puts resistance at 449.5 for open and support at 445.7 442 438.
While I am watching for a bearish formation (see the black channel down) I am monitoring for SPY to find support and continue on a bull run (red channel) of course while also monitoring for a bigger overall channel that I have not been able to establish yet.
If the BEAR channel holds true tomorrows range is 442.3 to 455.5.
If the BULL channel holds true 445.5 to 460 is tomorrows range.
The one thing while this chart is very busy I want to point out is the EMAs. Today we saw SPY dip below the 20, 50, and 100 daily EMAs for the 2nd time this week but failed to close below it again. On the upside we rejected quite firmly at the daily 8ema of 450.8. To me the breaking of the 20, 50 and 100 ema AGAIN along with the very firm rejection and red candle into close tonight is bearish for tomorrow and definitely for next week. We also finally have a true downward direction on the daily 8ema.
Now of course if tomorrow bulls can get this up and over the daily 8ema and close above it I would think 460 comes before 440. However, I will be looking for bears to get back on track again tomorrow and close below the daily 50 ema at 445.3. However, a close below the 100ema at 446.75 or the daily 20 ema at 447.21 would also be a bearish indication for next week.
We also have a confirmed daily MACD sell and RSI still a 53 trending sideways now.
Same thing with the weekly chart here the bears were able to get it down below the weekly 20 and 8ema which is very bearish and I will look for them to close this candle tomorrow below the 20 and 8ema at 445.38/ 446.64. A close there with a firmly red candle below the doji last week would solidify some red downside next week in my opinion.
The VIX has another MASSIVE day today with a total range from peaks to lows of 21.12 to 23.82 or a move of 12% again today. Some very big moves this week with the VIX that’s for sure.
Before someone says “YoU cAnT tA tHe ViX” Yes I know this… duh… BUT you can watch key levels and right now this month the low has been 18.7 and the high 24.8. What the means to me is closing at 21.56 we are pretty much right in the middle of the current month range. Bulls and Bears both have a chance to capitalize tomorrow.
Apple had a pretty unexciting day today finishing at a small 0.18% green. We saw it break its key support at the daily 20ema again of 171. However, it too saw an end of day bull run that hard rejected its daily 8ema at 173.72 to close at 172.14. With an already red after market i will look for that to continue over night. SPY bears will like to see Apple close its week out with a candle below the daily 20ema at 171 tomorrow with hopes of seeing 165-168 next week. However, the bulls need a close above the 8ema tomorrow.
Range for tomorrow based off the current black bull channel puts us at 171.3 to 178 (unlimited upside tomorrow). The yellow bear channel (much like SPY) gives a range of 171.3 to 160 (unlimited downside tomorrow).
Apples Weekly chart has a similar break target of below the 8ema of 169.1 tomorrow to ensure a red week next week.
10% challenge-
I had a pretty incredible day today. I had realized gains of 6x my daily profit goal today alone. Heading into tomorrow this is shaping up to be a killer week. I played a 1dte call for -10%, a 1dte put 10%, 4dte put 23%, 6dte put 20%, 1dte put 20% and a 4dte call for 15% today. I am holding a 4dte put over night and also opened a YOLO June 17th 375P today.
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